Well, I really ought to get my last hike blogged. I've got several beautiful photos to show. But the most dramatic event of the hike was that I was awakened by a curious visitor outside my tent the first night at 3:30 AM, snuffing, snorting, and pawing around. Needless to say, I was totally freaked out. More about that when I get around to blogging that hike.
-In the meantime, however, as you may well imagine, I've been thinking an awful lot about bears. Mainly, I've been thinking about the risk of getting killed by one while hiking solo in the Alaska wilderness. Aside from the embarrassment of being described in the papers as foolhardy (as if I should mind - being dead and all - but still...) I don't much like the idea of becoming trail mix for a bear family.
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So, being an engineer, I couldn't help but ask myself what the statistical risks are, of getting kilt by one of those critters while traipsing through the wilderness.
-Joe Anders has compiled a list of known outdoor fatalities in Alaska. His website is a wonderful resource for Alaska hikers.
-Here are the results of my analysis of Joe's list.
-If you are going to die outdoors in Alaska, the statistical cause will be:
-38% - Falling
24% - Drowning
11% - Exposure
9% - Avalanche
8% - Bear
8% - Other
-So, bear attack would be the 5th on the list of risks. In fact, you're about 13 times more likely to die of some other cause. All of those other causes being so eminently avoidable makes me feel pretty certain I won't succumb to them. And statistically, bear attack is even less likely than all the other causes I feel certain I'll avoid. Well, that all seems vaguely reassuring. But these are relative risk comparisons. What are the absolute risks?
-From Joe's list, I calculate the risk of dieing by a bear attack on any given day-hike in Alaska to be about 1 in 360,000. To put this in perspective, you would have to hike every single day for ten average lifetimes (700 years) to incur more than 50% risk of dieing by bear attack. (However, there's a 100% chance your feet would hurt un-bear-ably by then. Sorry.) I estimate the risk of dieing in a car accident for the average American on any given day is about 1 in 2,000,000. So, yes, hiking in Alaska is more dangerous than driving in America, but statistically, driving - and hiking - is very, exceedingly, safe. Still, when you are awakened in the darkness hearing one just outside the tent...
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I started to describe the assumptions and math that went into my analysis, but then decided this would be boring to almost everyone. However, I'll go ahead and post it if I'm wrong and there's enough interest after all.
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Best regards,
tn
-ps: The photo shows where I camped the night I had an uninvited visitor.
The statistics are interesting, though I can't imagine how you got a denominator for the absolute rate. But I don't think that you answered your question: by how much (risk ratio or risk difference) does solo hiking increase risk of death by bear compared to hiking in a group. There are very few bear deaths to work from, and all but Treadwell, who courted danger, and two joggers (description unavailable) were alone. Another relevant question is if one hikes alone, will various protective devices be of use? Here the number of deaths is far too low to tell, but in one case a man died with his pepper spray back at base camp, and in another a man was killed but not eaten after shooting a bear with a small rifle in what may have been self-defence.
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